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AI weighs 9 signals across sharp money action, injuries, news, matchup context, and more. Every pick that ships is then tracked against the closing line so you can see whether the edge actually showed up — not just whether the bet won.
Signal agreement gets a candidate to the Watchlist. To ship as a Top Pick, it has to clear three more gates — bet type, sharp score, and realistic odds. Any gate fails and the pick stays a Watchlist or Monitoring entry, not a Top Pick.
How many of the 9 signals point the same way as the pick. We require at least 5 of 9 agreeing for NBA, MLB, and NFL — 4 of 9 for NHL — before a bet ships at all.
Some bet types are easier for our model to call than others. Mainlines (spreads, totals, moneylines) get full weight; star-player props slightly less; rare-event props (blocks, steals) and same-game parlays get the lowest weight.
Edge times win probability — your expected return per dollar at risk. We require at least 0.8% return per dollar before a pick promotes to Top Picks.
Top Picks have to be at +250 or shorter, with a real win probability of 30% or higher (sportsbook tax stripped out). Longshots get their own surface — they don't crowd Top Picks.
The dashboard is structured by what cleared and what didn't. Top Picks at the top, Watchlist below, then Monitoring, then a Sharp Longshots strip when the AI finds a high-conviction longshot. AI Bet Builder lets you describe the bet you want in plain English.
Every bet that cleared all four checks. Each card shows the 9-signal grid, the recommended sportsbook, suggested stake, and a fallback if the line moves.
Bets that cleared signal agreement but missed one of the other three gates — bet type, sharp score, or realistic odds. Worth knowing about; not a Top Pick.
Games we are tracking but where signals haven't converged. Ultra-compact rows so you can see which games are alive without clutter.
+250 or longer odds where the AI strongly likes the side anyway: signal agreement of 7+/9, sharp money supporting, no contradicting news, realistic win probability of 18% or higher. Higher variance — bet sizing accordingly.
Type "Build me a $100 NBA parlay, medium risk, Giannis tonight" — the AI parses your ask, picks legs from tonight's candidate pool, runs correlation math, and returns a priced ticket. You can always edit it in the Builder.
Each signal pulls from a different data source so they can't all be wrong the same way. We surface every one — including the ones that read neutral or contradict — so you can see the full read, not a curated highlight.
Implied-probability edge vs. the median of 4 books.
Directional steam across DK / FD / MGM / Caesars since open.
Where the smart money is. We anchor against the sharpest market in the world as our internal baseline (narrow vig + global volume make this the closest reflection of true probability available) and watch when its price diverges from the 4 retail US books. We also watch the line direction vs the public ticket split.
Quantified point impact of reported injuries, with "already priced in" detection.
Head-to-head structural edges: opponent defense, pace, handedness splits.
Last 5 games vs. season baseline on the exact prop stat.
L10 record, point / run differential, streak, schedule density.
Arena factor (NBA / NHL), weather / ballpark (MLB), weather / stadium (NFL).
Canonicalized news events from the 4-hour rolling scan.
Want the FIRED / NEUTRAL / data-source breakdown for each signal? Read the full methodology →
Long-term winning bettors don't just care if a bet wins — they care whether the price they took was better than the price the market settled at. That's called CLV (closing line value), and it's the cleanest proof that an edge is real. We grade every pick automatically against the close so you can see whether your bets are beating the market — not just variance-driven wins and losses.
Sign up free in 30 seconds. No credit card. We'll show you tonight's Top Picks with the full 9-signal grid on every card.
We guarantee transparent math and every-bet signal coverage.
You bet at licensed sportsbooks directly. We deep-link, not route money.
Every signal, formula, and data source is on the Methodology page.
The business model is the subscription. Your bet data is exportable + deletable.
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